2019 Playoff Predictions

It's about that time! The second best time of year. No, the first best isn't Christmas. It's that time of year that just ended (or is about to end depending when you're reading this). MARCH MADNESS of course!

But yeah, the second best time of year is definitely the NBA Playoffs. Christmas may be third some years but with the World Cup happening I think we all know that's a clear third place this year. So anyways, this article isn't about Christmas and how it ranks on the best times of the year. This all about the 2019 NBA Playoffs and how we see things unfolding as of right now. Right now being the home stretch of the regular season. Each team has 4-5 games left and some serious pushes are being made for playoff seeding. Some surprisingly lackluster pushes are also being made by three teams that are fighting for the final spot in the East. I mean c'mon Miami! D Wade is retiring and you're about to let Orlando...ORLANDO...take your spot in the playoffs. I know this is an NBA blog but that deserves a big "C'mon man!" from Chris Carter.

Enough rambling though. Read on to get our takes on potential first round excitement and more...

Best potential first round match-ups in both conferences?

Jake

East - Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets

My love for this potential series has nothing to do with the stats, player match-ups or accolades and everything to do with the story lines behind the teams. You've got Brooklyn, a team that everybody thought was at least a season away from flourishing matching up against the juggernaut that is the Toronto Raptors, a team that everybody knew would be competitive but nobody knew the extent to which Kawhi would take them over the top. Let's start with Brooklyn, a young team finally building a roster the right way - with switchable pieces and long bodies who can both shoot and play switch heavy defense. Jarrett Allen looks like he's a year away from morphing into a Rudy Gobert clone who isn't afraid to shoot threes, Caris LeVert is slowly recovering from the gruesome foot injury he suffered but has the potential to swing a series with his halfcourt offense and D'Angelo Russell has been making the Lakers kick themselves all year by having a breakout season earning his first All-Star spot. Even getting 1 win and keeping a couple of games close against the Raptors would give this squad the ultimate confidence boost going into next season. Toronto on the other hand are in win-now mode, with Kawhi's impending free agency looming - they need to prove that they've built a squad around him that can at least make a Conference Finals appearance this year if they want any chance of him re-signing. There's a very underrated and deep Clippers squad in LA that is primed to throw him a max-contract offer while being closer to home and ultra competitive - question is... does he want to go back to the bloodbath West?

West - Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The chance to have unlimited cupcake references for at least 4 straight games?! Count me in.

Yeah I know Russ and KD might have made up a while ago, but don't count out their pettiness - Russ is the King of #shotsfired and Durant has the thinnest skin in the NBA, it really won't take much to get these guys going at each other night to night. But the real question here is - how the hell did OKC end up in the 8th seed?! Well, we can put the majority of their recent slide down to Paul George's gammy shoulder - at this point in the season we know what Westbrook is, there is no extra gear for him to slide into when he's averaging a triple double for a third straight season and leaning heavily into being the second option on the team - isn't this the Westbrook we've always wanted?! We need to hope that PG13 is fully healthy for this matchup because OKC are going to need him, he's basically been in the 3rd spot behind Giannis and Harden for MVP all season and they're going to need all that sauce to have any chance of taking down the Warriors. I don't think Oklahoma make it past the Golden State in the event of a first round match-up, which would be a damn shame because this is a solid team. However, Golden State drawing the Thunder in the first damn round does lean heavily into my prediction that Philly will meet a beaten up Warriors squad in the Finals to take the title back to the City of Brotherly Love.

Chad

East - Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers

I’m not really excited about any first round matchup as the East is currently situated but this one could be intriguing if Boston continues to underperform and Indiana continues to overperform. With Victor Oladipo out I’m shocked Indiana has held on to this playoff positioning but props to them for being a true team and not just what one man can carry them into like Houston seems to be. I’m also shocked that Boston is in the four spot currently considering how promising they looked last year as they battled LeBron and the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. But hey, the playoffs are essentially a new season and I think Boston will step up to the challenge so I don’t anticipate this one going farther than Game 5. Game 6 if we’re lucky as basketball fans.

West - Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs

You already brought attention to the best matchup in the West. Clearly Russell and Paul George vs. Durant and Steph is must see TV. Can’t argue with that and not gonna try. But the 2 vs 7 matchup is also intriguing although far less exciting. Two of the most boring teams to watch from a casual fan’s perspective will hopefully make for a short series of some beautiful basketball. I think Denver takes down San Antonio in 5 but both teams thrive in the basketball IQ department making it a fun series to watch for basketball aficionados.

Best player in both conferences?

Jake

East - Giannis Antetokounmpo

I'm going to be typical here because I feel like it gives me the best chance of getting this pick right - but this is the best player on the best team in the East. Giannis has led Milwaukee to a potential 60-win season while easily becoming the number one pick for MVP in my opinion. His stats basically mimic Shaquille O'Neal's prime seasons right now AND he's still not added a consistent three point shot to his repertoire - which could cause an issue when the playoffs become a half court battle, but this guy has the longest body and stride in the league - he'll meet anybody at the rim and make them regret it. Add to all this that he had a disappointing playoff performance last year and worked with Kobe in the off season - you get a player who's primed to lock in and destroy teams on a nightly basis all the way to the Conference Finals at least.

West - Kevin Durant

Again, I'm going with best player on the best team (Sorry Steph), while Curry might be the most important player on the Warriors squad, Durant edges him for pure talent and production this season at least - probably the NBA's greatest scorer of All-Time, back-to-back Finals MVP awards and a virtual lock to set future career scoring records - he's going to be fully motivated to lead GSW to the first 3-peat since the Shaq-Kobe era. Particularly if he's jumping ship this summer to lead a team elsewhere, what better way to justify trying to do it by yourself than proving you can easily win 'ships alongside the greatest starting five ever assembled.

Chad

East - Joel Embiid

Again, just trying to bring a different perspective. I think Giannis has been the runner-up for the MVP this season behind James Harden (Edit: After seeing Giannis dominate Philly and Embiid I'm starting to question if he's actually the MVP.) and will likely be a sensation in the Eastern Conference playoffs as well but Joel Embiid will be the anchor that leads Philly to the Eastern Conference Finals to face The Greek Freak. And will dominate that series as well from his position. Although I haven’t decided if it will be enough to knock off the Bucks. Embiid is an unmatched force just as Giannis is in the East. The only bigs that can really challenge him are MAYBE Andre Drummond simply on physique alone and then Jokic, Karl Anthony Towns, or Anthony Davis but all of those guys are in the Western Conference. I think Embiid (and Simmons) will be on a mission this playoffs easily making it to the conference finals. (Edit: I've decided Giannis is the 2019 MVP.)

West - Russell Westbrook

I’m gonna be bold, and I mean BOLD here. Ok, not that bold because Westbrook is a former MVP and triple-double machine but still...

Russell Westbrook will be the best player in the West not only because he’ll drop several triple-doubles but because he’ll be the emotional leader in a seven game series that will see Golden State make a first round exit. Knocking the Warriors out is cause enough for me to put Brodie in this position. Add a couple 20-12-12 triple doubles in there and he’s the playoff MVP.

Upset Alert!!!

Jake

LA Clippers beat Houston Rockets

I've had the Clippers penned in for this spot since we first started the blog - the Clips were in the middle of a great run and looked to be primed to take surprising top 4 spot in the West, but then they traded away Tobias Harris and I was left feeling disappointed - why would they get rid of a top-20 player in the middle of a great season?! Whatever the reasoning (most likely a chance for a second max-contract spot for this summer's free agency fishing), they barely lost a stride and have been balling all season, the reason why? Don't play bad players. It seems so simple but a lot of teams compromise in certain areas to put players on the floor that are great at one thing. But this team put 5 guys out there that are all pretty good at everything. Throw in Lou Williams certain Sixth Man of The Year performance and you've got a dangerous team liable to go off against any team - the perfect team for them to dismantle? Houston. James Harden is second in the league for minutes per game (37.3) and third for total minutes (2538) - first is Bradley Beal in both categories and he won't even get the chance to appear in the postseason. Harden has been stunning as of late, dropping 61 last night and 57 the night before - but how much has he got left in the tank when teams get at least 4 chances per series to gameplan around either forcing only him or just his teammates to beat them? Chris Paul's postseason injury history isn't something to be discounted and Clint Capela is hardly a go-to option for offense, despite having a great season. The Clippers have some long, willing and ferocious defenders like Montrezl Harrell, Sindarius Thornwell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and most importantly Patrick Beverley - it honestly wouldn't surprise me if we heard reports that he needed to get an IV-drip on the days between games for just sacrificing his body on a nightly basis, similar to Matthew Dellavedova in the 2015-16 Finals chasing Steph Curry every night.

Chad

OKC Thunder topple the Golden State Warriors

I already set this up in my previous take on Russ so won’t go into too much depth here but Russ will be the catalyst that gets OKC’s train rolling so hard that the Big Five simply won’t be able to stop it. Klay will get hot but Steph will go cold as he so often does in big moments and Paul George will have the series of a lifetime. He'll be dominant on both the defensive and offensive ends. May even get a clutch block on KD in a pivotal game in the series. I have OKC in seven games with a combined point differential of about +14.

Best one game player performance?

Jake

James Harden

This might seem contradictory to my previous point - but I did say that the Clippers could upset Houston by either making James Harden trust the rest of his team to beat them or challenge him to beat them by himself. Now this prediction is based off the latter - maybe for the first game the Clippers decide that they'll test the water and place one of their fresh guards (likely Patrick Beverley or Sindarius Thornwell) on Harden and stick on everybody else like glue. I think Houston could lose that game very easily, especially with Montrezl Harrell able to protect the rim like he does - but it could lead to an absolutely legendary performance by The Beard, maybe something to the tune of 55-57 points and something ridiculous like 10 step-back three pointers. I still genuinely believe if the Clippers gameplan the correct way and work it out within the first couple of games then they could seriously upset Houston - but James Harden is absolutely my pick to go off.

Chad

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis will have at least one game where he drops 40+ in the first three quarters and then rides out the rest of the lopsided victory from he bench. None of the bottom three teams in the East are any match for the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis is a strong enough competitor to want to close out their first round matchup in four games so this could very well happen early on in the playoffs. He’ll be on a mission to make it clear this is not a contest and the other team should just pack it in. I hope that other team is Charlotte but a lot of things have to go right for that to happen. And this is clearly shaping up to be an accurate prediction as Giannis just dropped 40+ on Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and the rest of the 76ers in a come from behind victory that just felt like the Bucks asserting their dominance over the East.

Off-court Drama Potential?

Jake

DeMarcus Cousins

Stay with me while I show you how far the rabbit hole goes...

So far DeMarcus Cousins doesn't look bad at all on paper, he's averaging roughly 16 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block a night - while posting the second highest FG% (47%) of his career. But dig deeper and you'll see that he's basically unplayable. He's averaging career lows in both Offensive and Defensive Win Shares, his Offensive Box Plus/Minus is dead on 0 and his Value Over Replacement Player is just 0.8. The stats don't look good, but he looks worse than them with just a simple eye test - he can't keep up on switches, he's not defending the rim as well and the ball just isn't moving as quickly when he's on the floor. His box score stats are being bolstered by the fact the Golden State are running him with their second unit more than their first, and he's sitting out in most crunch time situations in favour of a more athletic rim protector (which suits GSW's offense better). So how will this manifest into off-court drama you ask? These stats and suitability for Golden State's offense wouldn't matter so much if we were talking about a low key guy like Robin Lopez, Tim Duncan, Steven Adams - just to name a few. But we're talking about DeMarcus Cousins. You really think he's going to sit quietly on the sideline during crunch time and meaningful games (basically every single postseason game) when he's supposed to be showing his value for potential big-contract suitors this offseason and it's his first taste of the postseason? (How crazy is that by the way...) No me neither, I'd put money on Boogie blowing up at some point in May and stories being published about him cussing out Steve Kerr and causing some general dysfunction in GSW's locker room.

Chad

Kyrie Irving

He’s great at saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. He scheduled a voluntary surgery on the same day as Game 7 last year versus Cleveland so he wouldn't have to be on the bench if his squad made it to the Finals without him. Doesn’t seem to quite understand how his words and actions can effect the team chemistry. Boston has had it’s struggles this year and that will continue into the second round of the playoffs. When facing a tough elimination game Kyrie will poorly answer a question about him leaving in free agency which will have obvious ripple effects the next game and will be the headline when Boston exits the playoffs prematurely. Kyrie seems like a young Kobe sometimes thinking he’s bigger than the team or that he’s greater than he actually is. That last part isn’t like Kobe. Kobe was as good as he thought he was but you get the point. Kyrie is arrogant as a mug.

Finals prediction?

Jake

Golden State Warriors 3-4 Philadelphia 76ers

I'm a man of my word. Check out my Three Most Unpopular Takes to see my reasoning on this one - but I'll break it down in a nutshell.

Golden State Warriors will get pummelled during their run through the Western Conference Playoffs, Steph Curry will go down with some kind of nagging injury, Philadelphia climb through the Eastern Conference - leaning heavily on their Starting Five, GSW meet PHI in The Finals after barely any rest and the 76ers throw every big body possible at Steph and KD in order to snatch Game 7 in Oakland.

Kevin Durant packs his bags and heads to New York City. To the Knicks or the Nets though? Think about that, because I'm certainly having my doubts about how attractive James Dolan and the Knicks are for somebody to put their career in their hands.

Chad

Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 Milwaukee Bucks

I’m sure I’ll continue to flip-flop on who I think will win the ‘ship all the way until it’s actually happening but assuming my prediction of OKC knocking off Golden State is accurate they could very well set themselves up for some insane momentum that sends them all the way to the big show. And how sweet would that be? As a Russell Westbrook fan I would absolutely LOVE to see him send KD packing and then go on to win a championship for Oklahoma City without the traitor. I think Giannis gives OKC all they can handle but ultimately doesn’t get enough support from Middleton and others when the lights are brightest. Russ and PG will do their thing. Russ will win MVP while averaging a triple-double in the Finals for what could be the first time ever. I don’t know if that’s accurate but certainly wouldn’t be surprised.

We know you disagree. And we know you have some very strong predictions of your own. So let's start a debate in the comments.