Harden: History in the Making? Or Empty Stat Stuffer?

Let's be honest, it's rare we see an outpouring of individual offensive excellence like we're seeing from James Harden over the past several weeks. It begs the question, how great has this stretch truly been? And how great is the guy putting up such outlandish numbers?

We'll preface this article by saying, neither of us are your biggest Harden fans. That being said, we'll do our best to be impartial. But it's sooo fun to be a Harden-basher...

What's your take on Harden's prolific offensive output from a historical perspective?

Jake: James Harden's nightly numbers are becoming as predictable as Lebron's "25-8-8" lines. I can't recall the last time I opened the box score after a Houston game and saw him with less than 30 points and 8 assists. Honestly though, despite Harden breaking records and dropping big numbers I really don't believe it's something that we'll look back on in the years to come and say "Wow, that guy was insane"... Harden already has too much of a perception around him as a foul hunter for most people to be impressed by his numbers. There seems to be no way to contain him from getting buckets, but if Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons were injured I'm sure Jimmy Butler would start having big nights out of pure necessity. The same goes for Klay Thompson if Curry and Durant AND Boogie AND Draymond were injured... (silently crying at the Warriors depth).

Anyway, the point is that Harden's numbers are absolutely bolstered by the lack of a second option with Chris Paul (hamstring) and Clint Capela (broken thumb) now injured - watch for Harden's scoring to soar, his efficiency to dive and Houston to drop a lot of close games.

Chad: Essentially an NBA 2K created player with all the offensive attributes turned up to 99. To me it’s crazy to watch him explode for 40 or 50 on a nightly basis but it’s all insignificant statistics and hollow excitement. It’s like George Gervin back in his heyday. Amazing to watch but what did he ever really accomplish? There’s an old story about Gervin in the final game of a season gunning for the scoring title when all his team needed was one win to make the playoffs. I have very little respect for that kind of player and correct or not, that’s how I see James Harden. So I agree 100% that we won’t look back in the years to come and even remember this stretch of Harden’s…so far at least. If he does this for the remainder of the season(s), even with CP3 and Capela back, then we may be having another conversation.

When was the last time we saw a 2-guard who was even close to being this dominant?

Jake: I’m going to throwback all the way to February 2003, when Kobe Bean Bryant himself dropped over 40 points per game in nine consecutive games - he averaged 40.9 ppg for the entire month. I'm also picking Kobe for the similarities in guarding him and James Harden - you know exactly the kind of moves both guys want to make, and you STILL can't stop them. Kobe's midrange pull-up/fadeaway and Harden's foul-baiting are two weapons that opponents try to neutralize but still falter to. Points for dominance have to go to The Black Mamba though, for making a career out of stealing opponents' souls.

Chad: Not to be redundant but Kobe is the obvious choice here. I’m really trying to not Harden-bash this whole article but man I would rather watch Kobe go to work and score 25 than watch Harden drop a double-nickel. They’re similar in many ways from high shot volume to passing out of necessity instead of passing because it’s the best thing for the team to get some ball movement. And technically they both have elite footwork since Harden’s sidestep and stepback aren’t called as travels in today’s NBA. But if I need 40-50 on a given night to get a WIN, I’m taking Kobe all day, every day. He had his fair share of lost games because he shot too much but I know he thought he was doing everything that was needed to win. I only get that sense from Harden on the offensive end and even then only when he has the ball in his hands. He’s had three straight games now with over 40 and not a single point was assisted on. People joke that Kobe never passed the ball but over 130 points scored in three games and not a single point was assisted on?! Come on man!

What do you think Harden's end-of-the-season stat line will look like?

Jake: 33.5PTS/6.9RB/7.4AST/4.6TO/44%FG/36%3PT/89%FT

Chad: It’s really hard to not seem wordy when facing a hot take with no words. But here it goes… I did a research project on “The Hot Hand Theory” while in college. Essentially the theory that you can “catch fire” doesn’t exist in the grand scheme of a season. Granted there are anomalies in all areas of life, not just basketball, but I’m predicting that Harden comes back down to earth in the second half of the season. And by “comes back down to earth,” I’m talking 31 points per game instead of the 35 he’s averaging now. That would be a slight improvement on the year before which is reasonable. But I don’t think he can manage this output for the entire season. Plus, when Chris Paul gets back from his hamstring injury that will take the ball out of Harden’s hands for a larger portion of the game than he’s been used to recently. So my final stat line for Harden’s season is gonna look something like: 31.0PTS, 6.0RPG, 7.8APG, 5.5TO, while shooting 37% from three, 44% from the field, and 86% from the free throw line. Those percentages stay closely in line with the illegitimacy of “The Hot Hand Theory,” while his numbers drop just slightly due to other factors like CP3 being back on the floor. An average of 31 points per game is still a historic feat. Only 14 people have racked up over 30 points per game since the 1979-1980 season and Harden will have done it twice. All time greats like Dwyane Wade and LeBron only accomplished that feat once each.

How far will Harden's offense take Houston in the playoffs?

Jake: Lets be honest here, does his offense even take Houston into the playoffs? If I'm picking a team to slide down the rankings when Utah makes their second half of the season run (lets go Donovan!) I'm choosing Houston. They're playing Austin Rivers 37.8 minutes per game and he's shooting almost 40% from 3PT range... how long do you really think that's going to last? If Chris Paul and Clint Capela aren't ready to come back some time before March I'm really struggling to see how Houston gets into the playoffs, even with The James Harden Show.

HOT TAKE: Houston finishes 9th and misses the playoffs.

Chad: My hot take here is going to be that James Harden defies logic and science and continues this stretch of electrifying, historical scoring nights beyond the all-star break and therefore helps Houston rack up just enough wins with CP3 and Capela out of the lineup that when they come back they just barely make the playoffs as the 7-seed and take the Denver Nuggets to seven games before falling to a much better all-around basketball team.

Who wins in a one-on-one matchup between Harden & Dwyane Wade in his prime?

Jake: Okay now I'm done trashing Harden. Let’s get into some juicy stuff where maybe he can get some credit.

Oh wait, you forgot I was a Miami Heat fan and almost even more so a Dwyane Wade fan... The Beard's getting no love here (mainly because of my own inability to grow facial hair).

My hypothetical match up is played at a local park, where there are no referees in sight except the occasional Harden fanboy in the crowd screaming, “AND-ONE!!!”

The Flash vs. The Beard - First to 7 points.

Dwyane Wade wins the tip because of his superior hops and sprints to the rim with Harden (too busy flailing backwards) trailing, where he jams an electrifying slam to the roars of the crowd (Me leading the cheers obviously).

Wade: 2 Harden: 0

Loser gets the ball, Harden wipes away his tears and drills a 5 step fade away. He turns with arms outstretched and mouth open towards the referee who is non-existent.

Wade: 2 Harden: 3

Flash crosses left, pulls back right, gets a shoulder past Harden - who is begging him to stop, Wade is tripped as Harden tries to stick with him and loops in an over the shoulder circus shot with a little English off the glass.

Wade: 4 Harden: 3

The Beard uses his lightning quick first step to put Wade on skates for a moment and holds out his arms mid-stride hunting for the foul - Wade calmly strips the ball, jogs outside the three point line, sprints back inside and cocks back a tomahawk slam over Harden who is now rocking back and forth whispering Mike D'Antoni's name over and over.

Wade: 6 Harden: 3

Harden pulls out a classic. Wade can only watch with acknowledgement as he comes downhill toward the basket, shows a classy in-out dribble and sinks a nasty Eurostep finish. Despite Harden's bruised ego, he can definitely admit he stole D Wade's move.

Wade: 6 Harden: 5

With the game on the line Wade dribbles sharply to the left and sets up a filthy pump fake, Harden bites... You can almost see his soul leaving his body as he crashes into Wade, who leaves the floor with perfect timing, sinking the mid range shot with ease. Wade instinctively jumps onto the nearest garbage can screaming "THIS IS MY HOUSE" to an adoring crowd. Harden is last seen stepping-back down a nearby alley - never to be seen again.

FINAL SCORE: Dwyane Wade: 8 James Harden: 5

Chad: (In an unprecedented move, Chad foregoes his response to allow everyone to marvel at that wonderful piece of fictional fact.)

How would you guard Harden?

Jake: For an NBA player or team I think the key to defending James Harden is to never get caught going under screens and attempt to trap him on high screens. Teams that are giving Harden problems are planting a big man in the paint and forcing him to drive and kick out towards his increasingly thin supporting cast or hoist up an ill-favoured mid-range shot. Dare Houston to beat you with anyone other than The Beard.

Despite completely roasting Harden, I honestly think the only way I could attempt to guard him would involve wearing hockey pads and taping my hands behind my back (shout out LA Lakers for actually putting their hands behind their backs when defending Harden last night - way to silent protest).

Chad: I’m actually going to go in a completely different direction with my Harden-stopper gameplan. In this hypothetical situation I’m going to assume I have a few tough-nosed guys like Marcus Smart, prime Kirk Hinrich, or Tony Allen. I'd love to start Avery Bradley in his prime, pre-injuries. I’d rotate these guys in and out of the game giving Harden hell. To quote the classic hoops film, Hoosiers, “Think of him (Harden) as chewing gum. By the end of the game I want to know what flavor he is.” I would coach my guys to be up in and under Harden all game long. If he doesn’t have the ball, he doesn’t catch the ball. If he has it he gets absolutely no room to operate. If you get beat and can’t recover, foul the **** out of him while going for the ball. There won’t be any off-ball rotation to help you. Once Harden gets the ball he has to beat us by himself. No pitch outs on drives. No dishes to the backside block on a post rotation. Harden has to shoot, get fouled, or turn the ball over with one of our dogs on him the whole game. Again, if we can defend the drive then do so without fouling. But if you’re gonna foul him, make him feel it. Put him on his back. As for ball screens, we’ll show a quick hedge with the big but never lose contact with our man, no switches. It’s the guard’s job to fight over the screen. Being up in Harden will make this far easier than giving space. Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with one guy, who has a history of showing fatigue by the way, trying to beat us as a one dimensional scoring option. I don't care if he breaks every scoring record in the book. This may not work in a single game but when it truly matters come playoff time, I’ll take my chances in a seven game series. Fatigue is guaranteed to set in as we beat on him night in and night out.

That's with an ideal squad consisting of a couple dogs to rotate in and out. With your typical NBA team this may not be feasible.

If I came up on Harden at an open run on a warm, summer Los Angeles day and had the pleasure of trying to shut him down I’d play him just like described above (Without putting him on his back. It’s open run and I’d never wish injury on anyone especially in a meaningless game). I may not be able to stop him but I’m damn sure gonna earn his respect by working him as hard as possible. And best believe I’m gonna be that guy that calls every. single. travel.

Can you justify three players who are currently better than Harden?

Jake: I'm approaching this question from a whole season perspective, James has had an amazing run over the past few weeks but there are definitely some players who've had everything pieced together from almost day one.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

26.4PPG / 12.5RPG / 6.0APG

Despite Harden's huge edge on Giannis from a scoring perspective and the Greek Freak's relative inability to score from beyond the arc (17.5% this season), Giannis has a much better field goal percentage - this being so high compared to his 3PT % just shows you how DOMINANT this man is in both the paint and transition. Leading the league in several defensive statistics and holding the Bucks at the #1 seed right now only strengthens Giannis' case for MVP. Giannis edges Harden with his two-way ability.

Stephen Curry

29.8PPG / 5.2RPG / 5.4APG

One look at the first Splash Bro's statistics, and the relative dive the Warriors went into while he was out is my main justification here. The Warriors, who have assembled the biggest super team EVER, weren't themselves without Curry on the court. I understand that Harden is basically all Houston has right now, but when a group of All-Stars struggle to find their rhythm without one piece of their machine - it shows how important that piece is.

Anthony Davis

29.3PPG / 13.3RPG / 4.4APG

Moving more to straight statistics, The Brow is dominating right now. The Pelicans would be nothing without him and Jrue Holiday, their struggles this season haven't been any fault of those two guys. Davis is putting up around 7 points less than Harden per game, but he more than makes up for it with an arsenal of inside/out moves, an ability to grab rebounds from ANYWHERE and a new flash of play making (career high 4.4 assists per game). If I had to choose between Davis and Harden to build a team, it'd be The Brow easily.

Chad: I agree this has to be viewed as a full season question to tackle. And even then it must be said that finding three players that are better than Harden over the course of a season is extremely tough. That’s coming from someone who can’t stand how Harden plays. But I’ll be damned if I can’t find those three guys…

LeBron James

The King is still the best player in the game as far as I’m concerned. Followed ever more closely by Kawhi and Giannis (if he ever develops a jumper) but they aren’t there just yet. Before LeBron’s unfortunate and extremely rare injury that’s kept him out for several weeks, he had L.A. sitting right in the middle of playoff contention in a very stout Western Conference. That’s the same team that without him is looking ever more likely that they won’t even make the playoffs unless James comes back…like…yesterday. He may not shoot as well as Harden but points are points and James averages over 26 of them while grabbing more rebounds and more assists.

After LeBron it gets a lot tougher to choose. Sure there are guys that play both ends of the floor and Harden famously doesn’t, but just because you play both ends doesn’t necessarily mean you’re better. Shane Battier played both ends of the floor and until you just read the name Shane Battier you probably haven’t thought of him in five years. Harden is so good offensively that it almost makes up for his defensive lapses at times. But I set out to find three guys, so…

Kawhi Leonard

I cringe for a second when typing Kawhi’s name in a positive light because of his final months in San Antonio (he looked like a terrible teammate and really soft) but he has definitely impressed since going to Toronto. If it weren’t for the Bucks surprising everyone with their continued reign over the East the Raptors would be back atop once again. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they get there by the end of the season. That’s in huge part due to the two-way player that Kawhi Leonard is. Being a two-way guy doesn’t inherently make you better than a one-way guy but being a two-way guy like Kawhi always does. He can shoot the three, mid-range pull up jays, posterize you at the rack, all after snatching your shot out of the air, ripping you on the perimeter, or smothering you with those “Klaws” to the point you don’t even get a shot off. So no doubt…Anywhere, anytime, I’ll take Kawhi Leonard over James Harden. In one-on-one, five-on-five, The Rucker, or on Harden’s home court…Houston we have a problem.

Anthony Davis

Sure, Jrue Holiday plays basketball in New Orleans but A.D. is basketball in the NOLA. There’s a reason for the constant buzz around where The Brow will end up next year and it’s not just because Rich Paul is both Davis and LeBron’s agent. Davis is a once-in-a-generation talent who could single handedly change the fortunes of a franchise that already has one superstar. He’s long, athletic, and incredibly skilled. Harden is a better scorer than Davis but if we’re talking about what makes a player great it’s not just skill with the ball. It’s a team game and I don’t believe that if Harden is a free agent he makes every single team better if he joins them. On the other hand there isn’t a single team that I can think of that wouldn’t be better with Davis on their roster. The Spurs for example, wouldn’t get better with Harden playing like Harden, but even if you don’t add Davis to the current roster but actually replace the potential all-star in Aldridge with Davis the Spurs might be top three in the West.

I feel pretty good about both of our selections but next thing we know Harden will be dropping a cool 50 on The Klaw two nights after hitting a game winner in New Orleans which was one night after putting 45 on the Lakers.

“But LeBron wasn’t playing.”

True, but then again the Lakers game was on a back-to-back with the Warriors where Harden single handedly kept the Rockets within striking distance down the stretch, only to lose by two against the most talented NBA team ever assembled.

“So what? They lost. He can’t beat the big dogs!”

Unless of course you consider that tomorrow he’s gonna put 37 on the number one team in the East with 10 boards, 12 assists, and the W. #TripleDouble

Sigh…

Help us the one and only Brodie. You’re our only hope!

Big Harden fan? Think we got it wrong? Tell us in the comments below.